What will 2024 hold for us? First of all, a possible “While company earnings growth could remain contained in light of the moderate economic growth, investors should focus on long-term themes such as artificial intelligence, the fight against obesity and the energy transition.” 2024: NORMALISATION, RESILIENCE AND LONG-TERM THEMES change in the United States leadership, as the US elections will take place in November, with potentially the same protagonists as four years ago. From a macroeconomic point of view, inflation is set to continue to normalise and move closer to the targets of the central banks. The latter may have to act by lowering their key interest rates in order to ensure a soft landing of the economy, a task that proves more challenging in practice than in theory, particularly during a US election year. From an investment perspective, the rise in rates has allowed bonds to regain their place in a balanced portfolio thanks to their attractive carry in real terms and their role as a buffer in the event of a more prolonged economic slowdown. 2024 is also likely to confirm some trends on the equity markets. While company earnings growth could remain contained in light of moderate economic growth, investors should focus on long-term themes such as artificial intelligence, the fight against obesity and the energy transition. key rates to levels not seen in the past 20 years. While inflation in Europe and the United States remains above the 2% target of the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB), the rate hikes are probably behind us. Last year, the role of the central bankers was not limited to tightening monetary policy: they had to intervene urgently to rescue US regional banks and the second-largest Swiss bank. Thanks to their swift intervention, the global financial system showed much better resilience than during the 2008 crisis. 2023 was unfortunately marred by new geopolitical tensions. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, tensions between China and the US are not waning, and the resurgence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are all evidence that the world is becoming increasingly multipolar. Emerging countries are also seeing a change in economic leadership with the growing importance of India at the expense of China and the desire of the BRICS group to open up to new members in order to gain greater influence on global geopolitics. Where does Europe fit into this new global framework? Its situation seems relatively calm compared to events in the rest of the world. It is living at the pace of a macroeconomic scenario described as a “Goldilocks” economy, not too hot and not too cold. Annual Report 2023 17
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